Despite Moves on Rates, Mainland Inflation Rocketing
考研英语
时间: 2019-04-08 14:15:34
作者: 匿名
Growth in China's inflation may have sped up further in August despite government austerity measures to stem consumer prices, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc said yesterday.
The consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, likely jumped 6.2 percent last month, the biggest growth since the beginning of 1997, said Liang Hong, the economist at the United States investment bank.
The nation's inflation in July jumped 5.6 percent in July, the strongest increase since February 1997, driven by rising food prices.
"The inflation impulse has quickly passed on from pork prices to prices of other primary agricultural products, processed food and catering services," said Liang.
"We see activity growth likely to re-accelerate in August, on the back of buoyant demand and loose monetary conditions."
Food costs, accounting for a third of the CPI basket, surged 15.4 percent last month, remaining the main driver of July's inflation growth after increasing costs of foodstock pushed up meat prices.
Meat and poultry prices soared 45.2 percent during the period.
Consumer prices in general are still "under control," and the government is taking measures to stabilize the costs of pork, Bi Jingquan, deputy chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission said on Tuesday.
But that doesn't mean inflation growth will withdraw below three percent "in the short term."
Deputy central bank governor Su Ning said last week that China will closely monitor inflation and make moves to stabilize prices.
The central bank has increased borrowing costs four times, with the latest taking effect two weeks ago.
Ma Jun, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Hong Kong, estimated that August's inflation growth may settle at around six percent year on year. Ma expects another interest rate increase in the second half of September as inflation keeps accelerating.
Liang said: "We believe rising CPI inflation and asset inflation in China will continue to put pressure on the central bank to raise rates."
Liang expects two more rate rises before the end of this year, each with a 27-basis-point rate adjustment on both the deposit and the lending rate.
Goldman Sachs estimates yearly inflation to reach 4.5 percent in 2007, beating the central bank's three-percent annual target.
The National Bureau of Statistics will release the August figure on Tuesday.
The consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, likely jumped 6.2 percent last month, the biggest growth since the beginning of 1997, said Liang Hong, the economist at the United States investment bank.
The nation's inflation in July jumped 5.6 percent in July, the strongest increase since February 1997, driven by rising food prices.
"The inflation impulse has quickly passed on from pork prices to prices of other primary agricultural products, processed food and catering services," said Liang.
"We see activity growth likely to re-accelerate in August, on the back of buoyant demand and loose monetary conditions."
Food costs, accounting for a third of the CPI basket, surged 15.4 percent last month, remaining the main driver of July's inflation growth after increasing costs of foodstock pushed up meat prices.
Meat and poultry prices soared 45.2 percent during the period.
Consumer prices in general are still "under control," and the government is taking measures to stabilize the costs of pork, Bi Jingquan, deputy chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission said on Tuesday.
But that doesn't mean inflation growth will withdraw below three percent "in the short term."
Deputy central bank governor Su Ning said last week that China will closely monitor inflation and make moves to stabilize prices.
The central bank has increased borrowing costs four times, with the latest taking effect two weeks ago.
Ma Jun, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Hong Kong, estimated that August's inflation growth may settle at around six percent year on year. Ma expects another interest rate increase in the second half of September as inflation keeps accelerating.
Liang said: "We believe rising CPI inflation and asset inflation in China will continue to put pressure on the central bank to raise rates."
Liang expects two more rate rises before the end of this year, each with a 27-basis-point rate adjustment on both the deposit and the lending rate.
Goldman Sachs estimates yearly inflation to reach 4.5 percent in 2007, beating the central bank's three-percent annual target.
The National Bureau of Statistics will release the August figure on Tuesday.